Election latest: Leaders gear up for first election debate - as Sunak focuses on immigration after toughest day of campaign (2024)

Sir Keir Starmer could be heading to Downing Street with a majority of 194 seats, bigger than what Tony Blair achieved in 1997, according to the first polling projection by YouGov of the campaign.

The projection shows a historic Labour landslide, with the party getting the highest number of seats of any party at an election in history.

At the same time, the Tories are trying to boost ratings by talking about culture wars while Labour is talking about real wars in terms of what they would do for defence. And Nigel Farage has announced he's standing for Reform UK.

On the Sky News Daily, Niall Patterson talks to Sky's chief political correspondent Jon Craig about the poll and today's developments, and to Scarlett Maguire, director of the polling organisation JL Partners.

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Sir Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, has insisted he will "not be distracted" by thoughts of an election deal after a YouGov poll forecast they could win 48 seats.

He was asked whether his party is leaning towards striking a deal with Labour - or the Conservatives.

Sir Ed says: "I'm not going to be distracted by that. What I'm focusing on is defeating Conservative MPs and SNP MPs in Scotland.

"Actually, we can beat a Labour MP in Sheffield Hallam.

"And if we get lots of Liberal Democrat MPs elected, not only will that transform the political debate in parliament, I think it will show that there is a fair deal on offer for people."

Pat McFadden, Labour's national campaign co-ordinator, is asked if he is confident Diane Abbott will be selected as a Labour candidate today.

It comes after a back-and-forth over whether she would be barred from doing so, despite having the Labour whip restored.

From 12pm, the party's candidates will be confirmed across the country.

"Yes, I am," Mr McFadden says.

"I support every Labour candidate."

Pressed, he says: "I don't have favourites, I support them all."

Pat McFadden, Labour's national campaign co-ordinator, has insisted that a YouGov poll which forecasts a landslide win for his party "makes no difference to us".

The projection gave Labour a majority of 194 seats in the 4 July poll.

But Mr McFadden says he "ignores" these projections, and he tells Labour staff - and candidates - to do the same.

"No votes have been cast, we are the challengers in this election, we are not the incumbents," he adds.

"The incumbents are the Conservatives, and the last thing I would want is for anybody to believe that the result has somehow been decided.

"The result hasn't been decided - we still have a month to go in this election campaign."

Asked about potential deals, Mr McFadden says: "We want a majority."

We've got three key dates for your diary from the Electoral Commission should you need to register to vote in the general election.

18 June: This is the deadline to register, which you can do online at gov.uk/register-to-vote.

19 June: This is the deadline to apply for a postal vote, should you not be around when polling stations open on 4 July.

26 June: This is the deadline to apply for a proxy vote, which allows someone to vote on your behalf, and also to apply for a Voter ID certificate should you not have another valid form of identification.

This is the first general election where ID is needed to vote - find out more about registration here:

With the general election campaign officially under way, what better time to keep a close eye on the latest polling?

The Sky News live poll tracker - collated and updated by our data and forensics team - aggregates various surveys to indicate how voters feel about the different political parties.

See the latest update below - and you can read more about the methodology behind the trackerhere.

Back to our conversation with Home Secretary James Cleverly, who was asked about Nigel Farage's U-turn over running to become an MP in Essex.

Mr Farage is now the leader of Reform UK, and a candidate for the party.

But Mr Cleverly tells Sky News that Reform is simply a "vehicle" for Mr Farage's "self-promotion".

"I think Richard Tice is now discovering that rather painfully."

Mr Tice was, until yesterday, the leader of the party.

"Keir Starmer would love people to vote Reform because he knows that a vote for Reform basically opens the door to a Labour government," Mr Cleverly says.

Turning to immigration, the home secretary claims that shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper's "big reveal" over migration "already exists".

Labour has pledged to launch a new Border Security Command, but Mr Cleverly says this is the same as the "Small Boats Operational Command".

He adds this is "really embarrassing for the shadow home secretary".

There are "no circ*mstances whatsoever" in which Reform UK would consider making a deal with the Conservatives, Nigel Farage has said.

The new leader of Reform UK, who confirmed he will be a candidate for the party yesterday, was asked if he could help the Conservatives form a government.

He explicitly ruled out any sort of deal with Rishi Sunak.

Mr Farage told the BBC: "There are no circ*mstances whatsoever.

"We have been betrayed by a Conservative Party I have given considerable help to."

The full list of candidates for Clacton are as follows:

• Jovan Owusu-Nepaul for Labour
  
• Giles Watling for the Conservative Party
• Natasha Osben for the Green Party
  
• Matthew Bensilum for the Liberal Democrats
• Nigel Farage for Reform UK

Home Secretary James Cleverly has insisted the British public is "not convinced" by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer as he defended the Tories after a damning poll.

An MRP poll published by YouGov forecast that Labour could be on course to win a historic landslide, with the party expected to win a 194-seat majority.

It would be the highest number of seats of any party at any election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

Asked about this, he said: "I know it's a cliche, but we are focusing exclusively on the one poll that matters - which is the one on 4 July."

But would Mr Cleverly prefer the polls to be in his favour?

"Of course I would... but the fact of the matter is when I knock on doors, what I'm hearing is people completely unconvinced by Labour."

However, it is put to the minister that a number of frontbenchers would lose their seats if the scenario forecast in the YouGov MRP poll plays out.

He shrugs this off, reiterating that the British people "aren't convinced by Keir Starmer", claiming they "scrunch up their faces" at the prospect of voting for Labour.

Asked for his reaction to the poll, he says he just "carried on campaigning".

The most famous TV election debate image is a sweaty and unshaven Richard Nixon up against the telegenic JFK in the US in 1960.

Here in the UK, the most decisive debate game-changer was Gordon Brown and David Cameron conceding "I agree with Nick" in 2010.

That sparked the"Cleggmania"which propelled Nick Clegg to the post of deputy prime minister in Mr Cameron's coalition government.

Mr Nixon's disaster under the harsh TV lights came in the first TV debate held in a US presidential election, one of four during the 1960 campaign.

At the time, Mr Nixon was Republican vice-president and John F Kennedy a young Democratic Party senator. But Mr Nixon was cruelly exposed as a TV novice and looked shifty.

You can read more from our chief political correspondent Jon Craig below: