Rip current risks especially high during July Fourth weekend, officials say (2024)

Four of the eight rip current deaths in Florida from June 20 to 23 occurred on two days in Panama City Beach in the Florida Panhandle, a year after the popular tourist destination recorded seven rip current deaths in nine days and the most of any U.S. beach last year. There were two deaths at Hutchinson Island’s Stuart Beach on Florida’s southeast coast, where a couple drowned while on vacation with their six children.

Rip currents are narrow channels of fast-moving water that flow away from the shoreline and can suddenly pull swimmers out to sea. Last year’s total of 90 rip current deaths was the second-highest since 2010. While 19 rip current fatalities have been recorded this year compared with 55 last year at this time, the recent flurry of fatalities and rescues have officials raising awareness about the danger ahead of the holiday weekend, when beaches tend to attract big crowds.

The National Weather Service was predicting the rip current risk to ramp up by this weekend along the Gulf Coast as Beryl reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico.

“A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place for the 4th of July holiday, however, the rip current risk looks to increase by Friday and especially into the post-holiday weekend,” the Weather Service in Mobile, Ala., wrote in a forecast discussion. “This will likely be a result of long period swell reaching our local beaches in association with Beryl.”

Rip currents kill an average of more than 70 people each year. They can form on almost any beach with breaking waves, especially near low spots or breaks in sandbars. Some weather systems, especially tropical storms and hurricanes out at sea, and full moons can make them more likely, but they can also occur on sunny, calm days.

“Rip currents are not like our other weather hazards that we cover. Severe thunderstorms and hurricanes, you see bad weather associated with it,” Daniel Nyman, meteorologist at WJHG in Panama City, said in an interview. “Rip currents … especially on the Gulf Coast, happen on the most picture-perfect days. There’s ultimately no warning.”

June and July are the deadliest months for rip currents, according to Weather Service data. In Bay County, where Panama City Beach is located, officials reported at least 25 rescues and more than 200 assists in June. A rescue is made by a lifeguard when a swimmer’s life is in immediate danger, while an assist is when a lifeguard responds to a swimmer they suspect may need assistance.

Elsewhere, there were more than 160 rescues at North Carolina beaches from June 18 to 22. In Ocean City, Md., lifeguards made 234 rescues in June, according to Butch Arbin, captain of the Ocean City Beach Patrol. Forecasts for an extremely active hurricane season have Arbin predicting a busy season for rip currents and rescues.

“Even though we may not get a direct hit from the hurricanes, whenever you have tropical activity, it’s pushing water in. That’s when you see an increase in rip currents.”

‘Tourist brain’ puts visitors at risk

Experts say that communicating the risk of rip currents is complicated by the fact that most who die from them are visitors, rather than locals who are more familiar with the danger and with the flag warning system used at some beaches. Many drownings occur at beaches without lifeguards and when red flags, indicating the highest risk level, are posted.

Stephen Leatherman, a coastal science expert at Florida International University, calls it “tourist brain.” The problem, he says, “is the public doesn’t seem to look at [rip current forecasts] before they go to the beach.” Rip currents can also be deceiving — they look like calm water because they suppress the breaking waves.

“That looks like the most inviting place to go swimming, and that’s where the rip is. So it’s counterintuitive,” Leatherman said.

Nyman and his colleague Chris Smith, WJHG’s chief meteorologist, frequently advise viewers on air and on social media about the rip current risk at Panama City Beach. However, their voices may not be the most important ones, Smith acknowledged.

“There’s been a big push by meteorologists in other [inland] places” to raise awareness of rip current risks, Smith said. “Because for the most part when people come on vacation, they’re not watching the local news.”

Smith pointed to Derek Kinkade, chief meteorologist at WTVM in Columbus, Ga., as an example. “Please, if you have plans to travel to the Gulf Coast, know the flag system and follow it!” Kinkade wrote in a recent Facebook post.

Beach replenishment may enhance rip currents

Smith and Nyman have a theory as to why more rip current deaths occur in certain years. They analyzed data on Bay County, Fla., beach drownings from 2000 to 2023 and found that deaths tended to spike in the year or two following beach replenishment projects — when the beach is replenished with sand dredged from offshore.

Smith emphasized that because there were only 67 rip current deaths in Bay County since 2000, according to data from the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, “there aren’t enough data points to draw any firm conclusions.”

But Nyman explained the potential impact: that altering the near-shore landscape could create breaks in the sandbar or trenches such that “water is more likely to rush away from the coastline, creating that rip current hazard.”

The meteorologists, however, aren’t the first to suggest a link between beach replenishment and rip currents. John Fletemeyer, executive director of the Aquatic Law and Safety Institute, said the relationship between beach replenishment and increased rip currents is more than a theory.

The steeper slope of the beach created by beach replenishment “creates the opportunity for a faster return of water to the ocean’s surf zone,” Fletemeyer, lead author on a research paper that investigated the topic, said in an interview. “Consequently, this creates a better environment for more and stronger rip currents. This is not speculation. This is supported by objective coastal scientific research.”

Not everyone agrees. With the “right kind of sand … my experience is that beach renourishment doesn’t increase risk but decreases risk,” said Arbin, captain of Ocean City’s beach patrol since 1997. “I don’t see a relationship.”

How to avoid the rips

Sometimes there are visible signs that a rip current exists, such as a break in the waves, foamy or darker water, or debris being carried offshore. Often, though, rip currents are difficult to see, or best seen from a high point such as a dune line or the top of a beach access.

If you get caught in a rip current, experts warn not to try to swim directly back toward shore, since fighting the current can quickly exhaust and drown you. Instead, swim parallel to the shore until you are out of the current, which is typically no wider than about 50 to 100 feet.

You might also escape by floating or treading water, allowing the current to take you out just past the breaking waves, where many rip currents tend to dissipate. You can then swim around the rip current back toward the shore. However, some rip currents can extend hundreds of yards offshore.

Most important, experts say, is to heed all warnings and swim where lifeguards are on duty. The United States Lifesaving Association, which reported more than 64,000 rescues in the country last year, estimates the chance of someone drowning at a beach with a lifeguard at 1 in 18 million.